Climate Change Impacts on Vulnerable Guddu and Sukkur Barrages in Indus River, Sindh

A. A. MAHESSAR, A. L. QURESHI, G. H. DARS, M. A. SOLANGI

Abstract


The increased magnitude and frequency peak flood discharge in rivers and streams happened due to climate change which increased woes and concerns for passing safe discharges from the barrages. Climate change is major reason to increase the occurrence of extreme climatic events (i.e. as abnormal and severe low floods). The major risks from climate change at the barrages are from changes in discharges’ patterns in rivers. In this paper, the statistics of historical flood peaks at Guddu and Sukkur barrages have been analysed that the maximum discharge was calculated is 33951m3/s, 33963m3/s and minimum4850 and 2870 m3/s respectively.The analysed results revealed that ten and thirteen super flood peaks at Guddu and Sukkur were calculated and concluded flood passing from these barrages caused occurrence of breaches in the protected bunds at upstream and downstream of barrages. However, the hydrologic analysis of the flood approach, particularly at Guddu and Sukkur barrages in Indus River was made by using the hydrologic statistics for analysing impacts of extreme flood events. Hence, the statistical methods were used for process of flood frequency for derivation design of barrages and flood passes for safeguarding flood damages and nature and behaviour condition of Indus River. Generalised Logistic (GL) and Gambel methods have been used for flood frequency at Guddu barrage and its result exhibited that for one in hundred years’ event discharge rate 43,765 m3/s and 44,526 m3/s at Guddu barrage as well as the California method for Sukkur its result revealed a flow rate of 47,000 m3/sfor one in hundred years’ event. As result, it is estimated that the extreme future floods may occur at barrages due to climate change.

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