PREDICTION OF THE LOCATION OF THE CRIME, USING STATISTICAL MODEL

F. S. SYED, S. HUANG, J. CHU, T. CAI

Abstract


It has been a crucial issue to study the psychology of a criminal. Continuous sequence of crimes becomes very harmful to the societies. Many of the researchers have been studying the psychology of the offender in order to know the crime nature, its timing and where the next crime could happen according to the psychology of the offender. In this paper, our aim is to accurately predict the location of next crime and arrest the offenders. We carry out research on the psychology of the offenders, and set a more accurate scheme, using the Theory of Hypothetical Circle of crime. This describes two types of crime path, the linear one and the circular one. The model has progressively been refined by adding more factors. On one hand, keeping in view the different geographical and cultural factors, we introduce the concept of Point of Attraction and Area of Attraction and quantify them as well to calculate their influence on the criminal possibility. On the other hand, according to the offenders’ records, we introduce the concept of Concentration Index, which helps to quantify the degree of the data’s concentration and thus we specify the crime location into a certain area of attraction.


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